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 14 November 2001
⇐20011113 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011115⇒

NOAA
13 Active Regions
09687
09688
09690
09691
09692
09694
09695
09696
09697
09698
09699
09700
09701
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09687 S20W91
(887",-321") 		β/β Cao/Bxo 0070/0030 02/09 -
09688 N26W71
(803",400") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
09690 S18W48
(669",-322") 		βγ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 1150/1180 64/82 C2.5(06:54)
C3.0(07:18)
C5.8(09:19)
C3.0(13:50)
C2.2(16:44)
M1.9(21:43)
/M1.5(06:22)
C6.9(09:19)
C3.6(11:44)
C7.2(18:38)
09691 N08W31
(483",91") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0100 01/01 -
09692 N09W91
(932",148") 		α/βγ Hkx/Eki 0230/0530 01/09 -
09694 N14W14
(222",184") 		β/α Cso/Hsx 0070/0070 02/01 -
09695 N11E17
(-272",136") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0100/0120 04/05 -
09696 S06E17
(-275",-143") 		β/β Dao/Dso 0050/0050 13/11 -
09697 N11E33
(-506",142") 		β/α Cso/Hax 0210/0200 03/02 C2.1(00:53)
09698 S24E36
(-508",-419") 		β/β Dso/Cao 0070/0050 03/05 -
09699 S09W91
(932",-146") 		β/β Dso/Cao 0070/0050 03/05 -
09700 S25W21
(307",-439") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 02/- -
09701 S33W16
(219",-553") 		β/- Dso/- 0020/- 05/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.5(00:35) C5.4(17:36) /C3.2(04:32) C3.7(10:14) C2.0(16:55)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-Nov-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 14-Nov-2001 23:30.