show styles

 22 October 2001
⇐20011021 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20011023⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09658
09661
09662
09667
09669
09670
09671
09672
09673
09674
09675
09676
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09658 S15W91
(912",-241") 		α/β Hax/Dao 0050/0110 01/07 M1.0(00:22)
09661 N14W78
(897",210") 		βγδ/βγ Eko/Eso 0360/0410 10/15 /M2.5(11:12)
09662 N11W91
(927",180") 		α/β Hax/Dso 0020/0060 01/02 -
09667 N26W36
(500",351") 		α/α Hrx/Hrx 0010/0010 02/01 -
09669 N14W26
(403",153") 		β/β Eai/Eai 0110/0150 35/32 C6.8(03:44)
C7.5(12:05)
09670 S18W08
(125",-373") 		β/β Fao/Fao 0390/0470 27/17 /C2.5(13:11)
09671 N15W36
(538",176") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0050/0080 10/15 -
09672 S19E13
(-201",-387") 		β/β Dko/Dao 0330/0150 14/08 C5.6(11:36)
M6.7(14:27)
X1.2(17:44)
/C4.3(00:04)
09673 N03E18
(-292",-32") 		β/β Cso/Cao 0140/0070 06/04 -
09674 S09W07
(114",-232") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0080/0050 07/07 -
09675 S13E42
(-617",-274") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
09676 N13E44
(-641",151") 		β/β Dso/Cao 0090/0070 05/01 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.3(05:05) C4.3(09:53) C7.9(20:57) /C2.1(00:28) C1.9(01:47) C1.4(03:21) C7.8(04:33) M1.3(05:09) C2.7(05:44) C2.7(07:53) C2.0(20:54)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 22-Oct-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 22-Oct-2001 23:30.