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 23 September 2001
⇐20010922 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010924⇒

NOAA
13 Active Regions
09616
09620
09621
09622
09624
09626
09627
09628
09629
09631
09632
09633
09634
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09616 S12W78
(904",-218") 		βγ/βγ Fso/Fao 0160/0120 09/11 /C4.9(05:41)
09620 N12W24
(377",92") 		β/β Dao/Dko 0110/0140 06/10 -
09621 N15W18
(283",137") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0180/0150 09/06 -
09622 N12W46
(666",117") 		β/β Dki/Dao 0300/0080 27/17 C4.4(01:02)
/C3.7(22:01)
09624 N02W14
(229",-79") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0100/0090 01/02 -
09626 N25W27
(390",304") 		β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0030 04/07 -
09627 N02E03
(-49",-82") 		β/β Cso/Cao 0050/0050 05/03 -
09628 S17E11
(-173",-383") 		βγ/βγ Fac/Fkc 0630/0790 58/44 C3.2(09:57)
C2.5(15:39)
/C5.4(18:08)
09629 N26W15
(220",312") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0040/0050 10/09 -
09631 N08W57
(786",68") 		β/β Dao/Dac 0050/0120 09/15 -
09632 S18E31
(-464",-384") 		βγ/β Dko/Dki 0710/0640 20/13 M1.1(11:31)
C3.4(13:49)
C6.5(14:17)
C3.3(23:18)
/C8.1(06:38)
C3.9(10:48)
C2.5(12:19)
C5.0(15:02)
09633 N23E62
(-769",317") 		α/- Hsx/- 0090/- 01/- -
09634 N12E62
(-817",142") 		β/- Dao/- 0090/- 04/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.0(16:45) /C3.1(00:33) C3.4(04:44)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 23-Sep-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 23-Sep-2001 23:30.