Flare Prediction System

	19 September 2001
⇐20010918 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation	Today	Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010920⇒

14 Active Regions

09608
09610
09616
09617
09619
09620
09621
09622
09623
09624
09625
09626
09627
09628

No Data

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)

Number

McIntosh

C-class

M-class

X-class

No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

X-rays
Protons
Electrons

Plasma
B Field

3 Day
6 Hour

Events

SolarSoft
SWPC HEK

Flare Forecast
MM MotD

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions

Group Number

Location

Hale
Class

McIntosh Class

Sunspot
Area

Number of Spots

Flares
History

S30W91
(817",-466")

α/βγ

Hsx/Eki

0180/0420

01/10

/M1.4(00:02)

S12W91
(923",-192")

β/β

Cao/Dao

0110/0150

05/06

-

S13W25
(390",-315")

βγ/βγ

Fai/Fki

0230/0270

31/25

-

N08W24
(382",24")

β/β

Cro/Cso

0020/0020

05/04

-

N16W56
(754",196")

β/β

Cso/Cso

0020/0020

04/02

-

N12E30
(-463",96")

β/α

Hax/Hax

0200/0180

03/02

/M1.3(15:31)

N14E35
(-527",134")

α/β

Hsx/Cao

0190/0130

07/03

C6.0(08:10)
/C7.5(04:28)

N12E06
(-97",81")

β/β

Dso/Dso

0020/0040

04/05

-

N21E19
(-288",233")

α/α

Hsx/Hsx

0010/0020

01/01

-

N04E42
(-632",-21")

α/α

Hsx/Hsx

0100/0040

01/01

-

S30W25
(346",-562")

β/-

Cso/-

0030/-

05/-

-

N25E34
(-480",309")

α/-

Hsx/-

0010/-

01/-

-

N05E59
(-808",21")

α/-

Hax/-

0060/-

01/-

-

S17E65
(-820",-321")

β/-

Dao/-

0160/-

06/-

C3.3(03:38)
C7.5(18:45)
/M1.4(17:02)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C7.2(06:59) C6.7(15:06) /C2.5(01:35) C8.2(01:48) C6.8(02:10) C6.4(06:13) C7.3(06:25) C6.9(14:38) M1.0(15:49) C6.4(17:19) C3.7(18:42) C4.1(19:20) C5.6(19:53) C4.9(20:44)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 19-Sep-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 19-Sep-2001 23:30.