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 5 September 2001
⇐20010904 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010906⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
09591
09596
09599
09601
09603
09604
09605
09606
09607
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09591 S19W91
(892",-303") 		α/βγδ Hkx/Fko 0100/0260 01/06 -
09596 N21W61
(773",282") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0140/0180 01/01 -
09599 S18W61
(787",-345") 		α/β Hsx/Dso 0030/0060 01/02 -
09601 N13W36
(543",117") 		βγ/βγ Fkc/Fkc 0780/0680 49/55 C5.7(09:13)
M6.0(14:25)
/C5.0(04:10)
M3.7(21:53)
09603 S08E22
(-351",-240") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0020 01/02 -
09604 S22W89
(875",-352") 		β/β Dao/Dso 0250/0040 05/04 -
09605 S19E26
(-392",-407") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0070/0020 06/03 -
09606 S17E31
(-466",-372") 		β/β Dao/Dso 0150/0040 10/02 M1.3(19:03)
/C3.9(11:48)
C9.0(15:12)
C7.4(17:20)
M1.8(20:12)
09607 S16E54
(-736",-326") 		β/- Eao/- 0210/- 04/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C9.3(02:53) C4.2(05:07) C6.4(06:05) C4.5(14:14) C8.1(16:28) /M1.0(18:53) C8.9(23:50)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 05-Sep-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 05-Sep-2001 23:30.