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 9 August 2001
⇐20010808 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010810⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
09557
09561
09562
09563
09566
09567
09569
09570
09571
09572
09573
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09557 S21W91
(881",-334") 		β/βδ Dai/Dki 0270/0600 11/12 /C1.2(00:58)
C4.5(07:49)
09561 S11W77
(904",-202") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0030 01/01 -
09562 N05W70
(885",46") 		α/β Axx/Bxo 0020/0020 02/05 -
09563 N24W61
(756",336") 		βγ/βγ Eai/Eki 0450/0470 23/24 C1.8(02:43)
C1.9(04:34)
/C1.4(07:21)
C2.6(10:29)
C1.6(14:59)
09566 N17W47
(662",206") 		β/β Dai/Dao 0140/0150 15/12 C4.2(03:13)
/C2.0(19:17)
C4.0(19:54)
09567 S14W84
(911",-237") 		β/β Cso/Bxo 0090/0040 06/06 C2.6(08:08)
/C1.3(02:05)
09569 S18W42
(602",-365") 		β/β Dki/Dao 0220/0170 14/12 C6.0(00:32)
09570 S10E17
(-273",-262") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0180/0190 05/03 C7.8(18:22)
09571 N06E38
(-580",15") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0070/0060 01/01 -
09572 N16W06
(95",159") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0020 01/01 -
09573 S08E56
(-777",-189") 		α/- Hax/- 0050/- 02/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.2(06:04) C3.8(06:39) C3.1(07:21) C3.7(11:16) C1.4(20:35) /C1.2(00:58) C1.0(06:26) C3.9(07:06) C4.2(16:50)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 09-Aug-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 09-Aug-2001 23:30.