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 28 May 2001
⇐20010527 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010529⇒

NOAA
13 Active Regions
09461
09462
09463
09465
09467
09468
09472
09473
09474
09475
09476
09477
09478
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09461 N22W91
(875",353") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
09462 N21W67
(813",345") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0070 01/01 -
09463 N08W65
(849",138") 		βγ/βγ Eki/Eko 0490/0530 13/20 -
09465 S11W47
(680",-169") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0020 07/05 -
09467 S06W40
(605",-86") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0070 01/01 -
09468 N06W30
(471",113") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0100/0150 14/16 -
09472 N12W06
(97",213") 		α/α Axx/Hax 0010/0020 02/02 -
09473 N12W14
(224",213") 		α/β Axx/Bxo 0010/0010 02/03 -
09474 N19E29
(-434",322") 		β/β Dao/Bxo 0050/0030 05/03 -
09475 N17E45
(-640",288") 		β/α Cao/Hsx 0030/0050 03/01 -
09476 S22W81
(865",-351") 		α/- Hrx/- 0020/- 01/- -
09477 S16E06
(-95",-245") 		β/- Dso/- 0040/- 06/- -
09478 N14E01
(-16",245") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 03/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.2(15:48) C1.3(18:22)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 28-May-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 28-May-2001 23:30.