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 15 April 2001
⇐20010414 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010416⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
09415
09417
09418
09420
09422
09424
09426
09427
09428
09429
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09415 S22W85
(872",-345") 		βγ/βγδ Dko/Dki 0360/0390 09/18 C3.6(05:53)
C7.7(08:26)
X14.(13:19)
/C1.6(00:06)
C1.1(07:13)
C2.4(08:28)
M1.0(17:15)
09417 S05W91
(940",-83") 		βγ/β Dao/Dao 0090/0120 04/07 -
09418 N26W72
(808",437") 		βγ/β Eao/Eso 0200/0120 07/05 -
09420 S07W58
(797",-66") 		α/β Hrx/Cao 0010/0040 04/03 -
09422 S12W31
(477",-119") 		βγ/βγ Dao/Dao 0040/0050 08/06 -
09424 S18W60
(779",-247") 		β/β Cro/Dso 0010/0030 04/06 -
09426 S10W16
(257",-77") 		β/β Cso/Dso 0020/0060 04/06 -
09427 S08W66
(856",-94") 		β/β Cro/Dao 0030/0060 05/07 -
09428 N14W53
(733",281") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 03/- -
09429 N09E48
(-695",207") 		α/- Hsx/- 0080/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.2(04:04) C1.0(04:27) C6.7(07:50) C5.3(10:56) C5.1(21:59) /C1.7(04:59) C1.2(19:26)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-Apr-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 15-Apr-2001 23:30.