show styles

 8 April 2001
⇐20010407 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010409⇒

NOAA
9 Active Regions
09406
09407
09415
09417
09418
09419
09420
09421
09422
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09406 N27W73
(805",452") 		α/β Hax/Cso 0150/0160 01/04 -
09407 N11W82
(918",192") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0100/0050 01/03 -
09415 S21E08
(-123",-245") 		βγ/βγ Eko/Dko 0880/0860 23/11 /C1.2(13:51)
09417 S08W13
(211",-34") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0160/0180 20/13 /C2.0(09:15)
09418 N26E19
(-277",498") 		β/β Eao/Dao 0210/0200 11/08 -
09419 N08W65
(849",172") 		α/- Axx/- 0010/- 02/- -
09420 S07E35
(-539",-33") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0070 02/02 -
09421 S15W56
(758",-189") 		β/- Cso/- 0010/- 02/- -
09422 S13E64
(-828",-169") 		α/- Hax/- 0050/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C2.3(10:34) C1.2(11:09) C1.2(18:54)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 08-Apr-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 08-Apr-2001 23:30.