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 4 April 2001
⇐20010403 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010405⇒

NOAA
14 Active Regions
09393
09395
09397
09401
09404
09406
09407
09408
09412
09413
09414
09415
09416
09417
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09393 N18W91
(898",288") 		βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 1080/1810 17/40 C8.7(06:37)
/M2.4(12:29)
09395 S12W86
(922",-188") 		α/α Axx/Hsx 0010/0020 01/01 -
09397 S07W79
(921",-94") 		β/β Dao/Cao 0060/0080 05/09 -
09401 N25W71
(810",427") 		β/βγ Cao/Cao 0160/0140 06/13 M1.1(11:52)
/C8.5(17:36)
09404 S05W45
(667",-8") 		β/β Cso/Dso 0030/0050 09/12 -
09406 N26W22
(319",499") 		α/α Hsx/Hax 0160/0200 02/02 -
09407 N13W29
(447",300") 		β/α Cso/Hsx 0100/0080 04/02 -
09408 S08W60
(811",-79") 		βγ/βγ Eki/Eki 0360/0310 20/24 -
09412 S15E11
(-174",-145") 		α/α Axx/Hax 0010/0040 02/02 -
09413 N11W58
(788",233") 		β/β Cao/Dso 0110/0030 09/07 -
09414 S23E31
(-449",-286") 		α/α Axx/Hsx 0010/0020 01/01 -
09415 S22E59
(-752",-302") 		β/- Dko/- 0470/- 05/- C5.6(05:05)
M1.6(09:41)
/X1.2(03:25)
09416 N17W32
(480",359") 		β/- Dso/- 0040/- 06/- -
09417 S10E29
(-452",-73") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.2(03:27) C6.4(03:45) C3.2(07:50) M2.0(12:12) /C7.1(16:47) C5.5(18:46) M1.1(23:17)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 04-Apr-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 04-Apr-2001 23:30.