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 27 March 2001
⇐20010326 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010328⇒

NOAA
15 Active Regions
09387
09389
09390
09392
09393
09394
09395
09396
09397
09398
09399
09400
09401
09402
09403
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09387 N09W52
(737",214") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0160/0110 02/07 -
09389 S13W16
(254",-107") 		β/β Fai/Fai 0090/0100 30/25 -
09390 N15W22
(343",343") 		β/β Esi/Esi 0090/0080 18/25 C4.2(00:47)
C5.6(19:10)
09392 N18W91
(898",287") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0060/0040 01/04 -
09393 N18E13
(-202",394") 		βγδ/βγ Fkc/Ekc 1100/1040 61/21 C7.3(02:22)
C5.6(14:48)
C4.2(18:26)
/C6.2(00:38)
M2.2(13:03)
09394 N09E08
(-130",256") 		α/α Hsx/Axx 0010/0000 01/01 -
09395 S12E21
(-332",-94") 		β/β Cso/Cao 0060/0050 04/03 -
09396 S06W46
(677",-21") 		β/β Dai/Cso 0110/0040 22/15 -
09397 S10E33
(-508",-71") 		β/β Eao/Dao 0260/0190 11/09 C8.2(20:23)
09398 N21W39
(556",417") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0010/0030 01/07 -
09399 S29W35
(475",-376") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0030/0030 09/07 -
09400 N10W09
(146",271") 		β/α Cro/Axx 0010/0000 04/01 -
09401 N22E30
(-439",441") 		β/β Dko/Dao 0270/0150 21/08 C4.5(12:15)
M2.2(16:25)
/M2.7(02:28)
C2.8(16:20)
C6.3(18:01)
09402 N16W12
(189",364") 		β/β Cro/Bxo 0010/0010 03/03 C6.3(07:52)
09403 S13E48
(-686",-139") 		α/- Hrx/- 0020/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.3(21:10) /C7.2(10:04) C4.2(14:34)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 27-Mar-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 27-Mar-2001 23:30.