Flare Prediction System

	26 March 2001
⇐20010325 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation	Today	Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010327⇒

14 Active Regions

09387
09389
09390
09392
09393
09394
09395
09396
09397
09398
09399
09400
09401
09402

No Data

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)

Number

McIntosh

C-class

M-class

X-class

No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

X-rays
Protons
Electrons

Plasma
B Field

3 Day
6 Hour

Events

SolarSoft
SWPC HEK

Flare Forecast
MM MotD

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions

Group Number

Location

Hale
Class

McIntosh Class

Sunspot
Area

Number of Spots

Flares
History

N08W37
(564",219")

β/β

Cso/Dso

0110/0150

07/11

-

S12W01
(16",-86")

β/β

Fai/Fao

0100/0150

25/13

-

N14W08
(128",335")

β/β

Esi/Fai

0080/0100

25/19

/C3.4(05:32)
C4.1(20:48)

N18W82
(890",304")

β/β

Cso/Dso

0040/0040

04/06

-

N20E26
(-390",416")

βγ/βγδ

Ekc/Ekc

1040/0820

21/12

C6.2(00:38)
M2.2(13:03)
/M2.5(04:12)
C3.5(22:23)

N09E21
(-335",250")

α/α

Axx/Hsx

0000/0010

01/01

-

S12E35
(-531",-106")

β/α

Cao/Hsx

0050/0150

03/01

-

S06W31
(485",-2")

β/β

Cso/Bxo

0040/0020

15/05

-

S12E47
(-677",-120")

β/β

Dao/Dso

0190/0290

09/03

-

N20W23
(348",418")

β/β

Cso/Bxo

0030/0010

07/06

-

S30W22
(307",-380")

β/β

Dso/Bxo

0030/0010

07/05

-

N11E06
(-97",289")

α/α

Axx/Hrx

0000/0010

01/02

-

N22E42
(-587",429")

β/-

Dao/-

0150/-

08/-

M2.7(02:28)
C2.8(16:20)
C6.3(18:01)
/C9.4(20:09)

N17E02
(-31",382")

β/-

Bxo/-

0010/-

03/-

/C9.0(16:25)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C7.2(10:04) C4.2(14:34) /M2.6(10:33)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 26-Mar-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 26-Mar-2001 23:30.