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 6 March 2001
⇐20010305 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010307⇒

NOAA
8 Active Regions
09364
09365
09366
09367
09368
09369
09370
09371
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09364 S10W91
(930",-164") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0070/0050 03/05 /C1.1(08:28)
09365 S10W48
(693",-84") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0020/0010 02/05 -
09366 S25W13
(193",-291") 		β/β Eao/Dai 0070/0090 16/23 -
09367 N10W05
(81",280") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0010/0010 01/01 -
09368 N26W05
(74",519") 		β/β Eao/Dai 0220/0150 22/16 C1.7(09:06)
C2.6(12:19)
C2.1(12:53)
C2.1(17:09)
C3.2(21:39)
09369 N17W90
(903",273") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0120/0110 05/07 -
09370 N09E14
(-226",261") 		β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0000 05/01 -
09371 N21W64
(793",385") 		β/β Dao/Cro 0060/0010 09/06 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.3(02:13) C1.2(05:41) C6.7(10:04) C2.2(10:51) C1.5(14:21) C1.5(15:49) C1.4(17:37) C1.3(18:13) C1.4(19:31) C1.6(22:40) /C1.6(09:11) C1.1(14:08) C1.4(16:25) C2.7(18:03) C1.8(18:31) C1.4(19:40) C1.3(21:13)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 06-Mar-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 06-Mar-2001 23:30.