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 24 February 2001
⇐20010223 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010225⇒

NOAA
8 Active Regions
09352
09354
09356
09357
09358
09359
09360
09361
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09352 S21W48
(657",-263") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 02/- -
09354 S09W73
(893",-112") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0250/0200 18/18 -
09356 S13W91
(920",-212") 		β/α Cso/Axx 0010/0020 02/02 -
09357 S25W46
(617",-323") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0020/0010 08/03 -
09358 S04W36
(555",29") 		β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0010 06/05 -
09359 N12E20
(-317",304") 		β/β Eao/Dao 0200/0190 15/10 /C1.4(14:17)
09360 S10E17
(-273",-52") 		α/α Hrx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
09361 S12W20
(317",-87") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0000 03/02 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(13:54) /C1.1(12:56) C2.2(21:47)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 24-Feb-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 24-Feb-2001 23:30.