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 19 February 2001
⇐20010218 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010220⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
09349
09350
09351
09352
09353
09354
09355
09356
09357
09358
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09349 N28W57
(700",496") 		α/α Hrx/Hrx 0020/0010 01/01 -
09350 N18W37
(542",378") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0080 01/01 -
09351 S20W91
(887",-322") 		β/- Cso/- 0010/- 02/- -
09352 S23E12
(-181",-263") 		β/β Cso/Bxo 0020/0010 06/03 -
09353 S22W23
(343",-253") 		β/β Cso/Bxo 0030/0010 06/06 -
09354 S09W07
(114",-33") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0110/0050 14/08 -
09355 N20E22
(-333",422") 		β/- Cro/- 0020/- 04/- -
09356 S13W24
(375",-108") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 04/- -
09357 S26E22
(-319",-316") 		α/- Hsx/- 0040/- 03/- -
09358 S08E32
(-497",-33") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 02/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.4(20:43) /C1.7(18:21)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 19-Feb-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 19-Feb-2001 23:30.