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 21 January 2001
⇐20010120 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010122⇒

NOAA
6 Active Regions
09308
09311
09312
09313
09316
09318
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09308 N17W91
(903",273") 		α/β Axx/Cso 0010/0050 01/03 -
09311 N05W34
(528",153") 		β/β Cso/Dso 0060/0080 04/11 C4.5(21:11)
M1.1(23:08)
09312 N06W07
(115",184") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0020 03/02 -
09313 S07E28
(-441",-39") 		βγ/β Eao/Eao 0220/0190 14/16 C3.0(19:17)
/M1.2(18:33)
M7.7(21:06)
09316 S17E50
(-694",-222") 		β/α Dso/Hsx 0200/0100 07/03 -
09318 S05W09
(147",2") 		β/- Dso/- 0020/- 02/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.7(12:19) /C1.3(00:05) C1.1(01:57) C1.0(03:13) C1.4(08:49) C1.0(14:28)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 21-Jan-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 21-Jan-2001 23:30.