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 7 January 2001
⇐20010106 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010108⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09289
09291
09292
09293
09294
09295
09296
09297
09300
09301
09302
09303
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09289 S06W81
(928",-88") 		β/β Dai/Eki 0480/0440 09/15 -
09291 S13W90
(920",-212") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0070/0070 02/01 -
09292 N24W42
(579",427") 		α/α Axx/Hsx 0010/0040 02/01 -
09293 N11W40
(598",228") 		β/α Cso/Axx 0010/0000 03/01 -
09294 N22W07
(107",412") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0020/0030 02/02 -
09295 S14E05
(-80",-167") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0070/0080 04/03 -
09296 N09E08
(-130",210") 		β/α Cso/Hsx 0130/0150 02/01 -
09297 N23W54
(705",403") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0080/0080 12/06 -
09300 S13E18
(-285",-154") 		β/α Cso/Axx 0020/0000 04/01 -
09301 N07E34
(-526",167") 		β/α Cao/Hsx 0040/0040 03/01 -
09302 N19E39
(-563",354") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0090/0110 05/05 /C3.6(14:49)
09303 S04W61
(826",-35") 		β/- Dso/- 0040/- 04/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.6(04:31) C2.0(08:34) C1.3(11:16) C1.9(12:04) C2.0(21:11) /C1.4(06:23) C2.2(21:22) C5.5(23:35)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 07-Jan-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 07-Jan-2001 23:30.