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 6 January 2001
⇐20010105 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20010107⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09289
09291
09292
09293
09294
09295
09296
09297
09299
09300
09301
09302
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09289 S07W66
(858",-90") 		β/β Eki/Eko 0440/0530 15/19 -
09291 S13W77
(897",-198") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0050 01/01 -
09292 N24W31
(445",432") 		α/β Hsx/Cro 0040/0030 01/06 -
09293 N14W32
(487",279") 		α/β Axx/Cso 0000/0020 01/04 -
09294 N22E05
(-76",411") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0030/0040 02/05 -
09295 S14E16
(-253",-171") 		β/α Cao/Hsx 0080/0080 03/01 -
09296 N08E20
(-321",189") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0150/0070 01/01 -
09297 N23W41
(572",412") 		β/β Dao/Cso 0080/0030 06/04 -
09299 N09E12
(-194",207") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0010 01/02 -
09300 S13E30
(-462",-160") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0010 01/02 -
09301 N07E47
(-687",156") 		α/α Hsx/Axx 0040/0020 01/02 -
09302 N19E53
(-715",342") 		β/- Cso/- 0110/- 05/- C3.6(14:49)
/C3.2(07:03)
C6.8(18:23)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.4(06:23) C2.2(21:22) C5.5(23:35) /C1.0(03:02) C1.1(04:22) C1.2(10:12) C2.0(15:44) C1.4(21:43)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 06-Jan-2001 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 06-Jan-2001 23:30.