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 20 December 2000
⇐20001219 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20001221⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
09262
09264
09267
09268
09269
09273
09277
09278
09279
09280
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09262 N16W88
(907",261") 		α/β Axx/Bxo 0000/0010 01/02 -
09264 S25W62
(757",-387") 		β/βγ Dso/Eao 0120/0140 13/15 -
09267 N07W86
(935",117") 		β/β Cso/Dao 0110/0130 03/08 /C2.1(00:22)
C2.2(04:55)
09268 S18W18
(278",-267") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0090/0080 01/01 -
09269 N13W32
(489",236") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0030/0040 07/05 /C3.0(14:11)
09273 N20E07
(-108",350") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 05/04 -
09277 N16W91
(907",259") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0010 01/01 -
09278 N09E23
(-366",173") 		β/β Dai/Dao 0090/0090 17/08 C1.8(02:06)
C3.3(05:10)
/C9.5(10:03)
C4.1(18:56)
C2.1(21:35)
09279 S11E40
(-598",-159") 		β/α Dso/Hax 0190/0060 10/02 C2.7(15:45)
C3.5(20:35)
09280 N10E58
(-790",179") 		β/- Dao/- 0260/- 05/- C2.2(23:00)
C2.5(23:17)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.7(00:53) C4.7(06:01) C2.4(11:38) C2.3(13:35) /C2.5(03:04) C3.3(18:10)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 20-Dec-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 20-Dec-2000 23:30.