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 17 December 2000
⇐20001216 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20001218⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
09262
09264
09265
09266
09267
09268
09269
09271
09272
09273
09275
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09262 N14W49
(693",243") 		β/β Bxo/Cso 0030/0050 07/12 -
09264 S25W22
(321",-382") 		βγ/β Eai/Eai 0230/0250 23/18 -
09265 N18W22
(337",312") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 05/09 -
09266 N23W88
(869",369") 		β/β Cao/Dro 0090/0070 05/05 C3.7(04:49)
/C1.4(05:05)
09267 N07W45
(665",130") 		β/β Cso/Dai 0130/0210 14/14 -
09268 S18E22
(-337",-273") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0100 01/01 -
09269 N16E09
(-142",282") 		β/β Dao/Cao 0070/0120 13/09 -
09271 S20W67
(818",-315") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0030/0030 05/05 C2.1(00:56)
/C2.3(19:21)
09272 N12W18
(286",217") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0030 10/05 -
09273 N19E43
(-611",323") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0060/0120 05/03 -
09275 N20W45
(629",338") 		β/- Cao/- 0030/- 05/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.8(00:02) C2.4(01:25) C4.4(01:46) /C2.5(00:09) C1.2(05:52)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 17-Dec-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 17-Dec-2000 23:30.