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 1 December 2000
⇐20001130 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20001202⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
09236
09239
09240
09242
09243
09244
09245
09246
09248
09249
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09236 N20W91
(887",323") 		α/α Hax/Hkx 0150/0400 01/04 -
09239 S21W54
(715",-345") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0100/0120 04/01 -
09240 N09W45
(661",139") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0230/0300 17/24 C2.3(00:39)
09242 N21W28
(415",330") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0200/0160 11/09 C3.1(08:55)
09243 S11W26
(408",-191") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0060/0050 16/07 -
09244 N15W84
(907",243") 		β/β Dao/Cao 0120/0110 12/08 -
09245 N04E26
(-414",55") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0040 01/01 -
09246 S12E05
(-80",-208") 		β/β Eai/Dso 0220/0120 24/15 C3.1(01:52)
C1.3(03:09)
/M1.3(20:27)
09248 N04W31
(487",56") 		α/- Axx/- 0010/- 03/- -
09249 N11E31
(-479",170") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 02/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(03:49) C1.3(22:08) /M1.0(09:00) C2.4(13:26) C3.7(14:02) C3.7(16:44) C1.4(19:46)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 01-Dec-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 01-Dec-2000 23:30.