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 29 October 2000
⇐20001028 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20001030⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
09201
09206
09207
09208
09209
09210
09211
09212
09213
09214
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09201 N19W91
(893",307") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0030 02/02 -
09206 N22W24
(357",290") 		β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0020 07/07 -
09207 S19W12
(186",-377") 		β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0040 05/09 -
09208 S10W03
(48",-238") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0040 02/01 -
09209 S24E21
(-310",-448") 		β/β Dsi/Dai 0200/0240 20/16 M4.4(01:28)
09210 S30E36
(-482",-524") 		β/β Dsi/Dso 0100/0110 04/06 -
09211 N33W65
(719",487") 		β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0000 03/02 -
09212 N06E63
(-838",64") 		β/- Dao/- 0200/- 03/- C3.4(00:48)
C5.4(05:47)
/C9.7(07:03)
09213 N00E58
(-803",-39") 		α/- Hsx/- 0190/- 02/- /C2.5(23:25)
09214 S13E57
(-773",-252") 		β/- Cso/- 0050/- 05/- C3.1(06:10)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C2.1(01:40) C4.9(04:04) C8.1(07:18) C9.6(09:39) C3.1(11:06) C4.8(16:30) M1.7(18:41) C3.9(19:40) C2.6(22:33)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Oct-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 29-Oct-2000 22:30.