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 6 October 2000
⇐20001005 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20001007⇒

NOAA
8 Active Regions
09172
09173
09176
09178
09181
09182
09184
09186
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09172 N12W90
(924",195") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 /C2.1(06:00)
09173 S13W82
(911",-225") 		β/βγ Eso/Eai 0200/0300 11/20 -
09176 S09W51
(727",-212") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0170/0190 07/15 -
09178 S23W43
(594",-438") 		β/βγ Eai/Eai 0190/0250 20/21 -
09181 S28E17
(-244",-531") 		β/β Dsi/Dai 0140/0130 11/11 -
09182 N03E25
(-400",-46") 		β/β Eso/Eao 0150/0160 08/08 -
09184 S14E23
(-359",-322") 		α/β Axx/Cso 0010/0020 01/03 -
09186 N13W69
(860",174") 		β/β Cso/Dao 0070/0040 06/09 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.4(10:05) /C1.0(07:44) C1.3(13:06)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 06-Oct-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 06-Oct-2000 23:30.