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 7 September 2000
⇐20000906 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000908⇒

NOAA
8 Active Regions
09145
09147
09149
09151
09152
09154
09156
09157
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09145 S08W90
(935",-130") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0060/0030 01/01 -
09147 N06W67
(866",51") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0040 02/02 -
09149 N13W63
(821",158") 		βγ/β Eai/Eai 0270/0230 19/24 C1.6(18:51)
/C1.5(00:21)
C2.7(01:33)
09151 N10W46
(671",81") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0060/0050 09/12 C4.4(10:54)
C2.7(13:03)
C7.2(20:32)
09152 N17W21
(325",168") 		β/α Bxo/Hax 0010/0020 04/02 -
09154 S18W35
(517",-383") 		βγ/β Eki/Eai 0510/0390 30/30 /C1.7(03:38)
C2.2(13:35)
C2.2(14:59)
09156 S27E36
(-496",-512") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 01/- -
09157 N21E50
(-677",265") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 04/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.2(19:57) /C1.2(18:44) C2.3(22:32)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 07-Sep-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 07-Sep-2000 23:30.