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 4 September 2000
⇐20000903 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000905⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
09142
09143
09145
09146
09147
09149
09151
09152
09153
09154
09155
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09142 N16W77
(885",232") 		β/α Bxo/Hsx 0020/0010 02/01 -
09143 S19W75
(863",-334") 		β/β Bxo/Dso 0020/0050 02/02 -
09145 S09W49
(706",-224") 		α/β Hax/Cao 0070/0040 04/07 -
09146 S23W58
(738",-425") 		α/α Hrx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
09147 N07W26
(412",8") 		β/β Cao/Cso 0100/0090 08/03 -
09149 N14W24
(374",121") 		β/β Eai/Eki 0240/0350 28/25 C1.6(11:34)
C1.3(12:48)
C2.9(14:50)
C2.7(16:33)
C3.3(17:45)
09151 N09W08
(130",30") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/04 -
09152 N18E20
(-308",183") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0040/0040 02/01 -
09153 S33W24
(323",-603") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0020/0010 06/05 -
09154 S21E05
(-77",-448") 		β/- Bxo/- 0020/- 09/- M1.3(01:03)
C1.5(06:49)
C2.2(14:14)
C2.0(20:13)
C2.1(20:34)
C4.9(21:29)
/C4.2(23:30)
09155 S11E18
(-287",-291") 		β/- Bxo/- 0020/- 05/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.2(10:57) C1.3(15:34) C1.7(17:23) C4.1(19:01) C3.3(19:50) /C1.0(02:39) C3.7(22:40)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 04-Sep-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 04-Sep-2000 23:30.