show styles

 31 August 2000
⇐20000830 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000901⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
09138
09140
09142
09143
09144
09145
09147
09148
09149
09150
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09138 S28W89
(833",-441") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0020 01/01 -
09140 N12W53
(739",125") 		βγ/β Eso/Dao 0140/0180 23/16 /C1.0(16:01)
09142 N16W19
(296",151") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0020 01/01 -
09143 S18W21
(323",-396") 		β/β Eai/Eai 0190/0290 20/21 C1.6(06:50)
09144 N27W64
(758",380") 		β/β Eao/Eao 0120/0170 14/13 -
09145 S11E06
(-97",-295") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0080/0050 05/05 -
09147 N05E25
(-399",-25") 		α/α Hsx/Hax 0110/0090 02/03 -
09148 S19E06
(-93",-418") 		α/α Axx/Hsx 0000/0020 01/01 -
09149 N11E30
(-465",78") 		β/β Eai/Eai 0330/0280 19/12 -
09150 N11E50
(-712",104") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C1.8(08:01) C1.3(08:52) C1.2(11:54)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 31-Aug-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 31-Aug-2000 23:30.