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 19 August 2000
⇐20000818 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000820⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09123
09124
09125
09127
09128
09129
09131
09132
09133
09134
09135
09136
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09123 N21W70
(830",300") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/03 -
09124 S13W50
(706",-282") 		β/β Bxo/Cso 0020/0030 13/18 -
09125 N26W49
(642",345") 		βγ/βγ Eai/Eai 0180/0200 34/35 C5.0(04:32)
C4.1(19:19)
/C1.1(18:09)
C1.3(23:50)
09127 S37W80
(743",-580") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0140/0160 04/07 /C5.5(04:16)
09128 N10W33
(508",69") 		β/β Dro/Bxo 0030/0010 10/10 -
09129 S05W20
(323",-188") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0190/0150 07/09 -
09131 N14W07
(112",118") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0100/0090 05/05 -
09132 N14W07
(112",118") 		α/β Hsx/Bxo 0090/0010 01/05 -
09133 S10W64
(837",-212") 		β/α Bxo/Axx 0000/0000 03/03 -
09134 N08E01
(-16",18") 		β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0000 04/05 -
09135 S12W40
(595",-280") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0110/0120 17/23 -
09136 N07W34
(526",21") 		β/β Dao/Cso 0060/0020 09/09 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.2(05:44)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 19-Aug-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 19-Aug-2000 23:30.