show styles

 16 August 2000
⇐20000815 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000817⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09115
09122
09123
09124
09125
09127
09128
09129
09131
09132
09134
09135
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09115 N20W91
(887",322") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0110/0100 01/01 -
09122 N23W71
(823",333") 		α/β Hsx/Bxo 0020/0020 02/05 -
09123 N20W34
(498",235") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0020/0020 02/04 -
09124 S12W07
(113",-304") 		β/β Cso/Bxo 0050/0020 11/08 -
09125 N25W11
(164",298") 		βγ/βγ Dai/Dai 0320/0260 34/44 /C3.3(01:38)
C1.3(05:22)
C1.4(13:58)
C1.6(15:40)
C1.4(20:20)
09127 S35W44
(538",-604") 		β/β Dso/Cao 0110/0040 11/06 -
09128 N11E05
(-81",70") 		β/β Dso/Cso 0030/0030 04/07 -
09129 S07E19
(-306",-219") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0120/0120 05/03 -
09131 N13E31
(-475",118") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0090 01/01 C1.2(23:29)
09132 N21E26
(-388",244") 		β/β Cso/Bxo 0030/0020 05/04 -
09134 N06E39
(-593",12") 		α/α Hrx/Hrx 0010/0010 01/01 -
09135 S15W00
(0",-351") 		β/- Dso/- 0050/- 12/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.1(00:42) C1.8(04:44) C1.2(20:44) /C1.6(00:51)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 16-Aug-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 16-Aug-2000 23:30.