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 13 August 2000
⇐20000812 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000814⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
09114
09115
09121
09122
09123
09124
09125
09126
09127
09128
09129
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09114 N10W72
(886",130") 		βγ/β Dai/Eki 0310/0340 09/18 C2.3(20:11)
/C4.8(02:00)
C3.2(12:29)
C3.2(13:48)
09115 N17W52
(713",210") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0120/0130 04/07 -
09121 S33W61
(693",-556") 		β/β Dso/Eso 0070/0060 02/02 -
09122 N22W31
(452",266") 		β/β Cao/Cso 0040/0080 08/10 -
09123 N20E07
(-108",220") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0050/0060 06/04 -
09124 S12E23
(-362",-294") 		β/β Cso/Cro 0020/0040 06/03 C1.7(05:10)
/C2.5(00:03)
C3.5(06:17)
09125 N25E29
(-416",311") 		β/β Dai/Dao 0090/0050 25/04 C4.1(13:38)
C2.0(18:15)
C1.8(21:35)
/C6.5(02:09)
C3.0(07:48)
C2.2(18:43)
09126 N07W69
(876",75") 		β/β Dao/Dso 0050/0030 07/05 C3.5(09:08)
09127 S38W06
(78",-665") 		β/β Cso/Cro 0020/0020 03/03 -
09128 N11E47
(-680",106") 		β/- Cso/- 0040/- 04/- -
09129 S05E58
(-799",-139") 		α/- Hsx/- 0060/- 02/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C3.1(03:42) C2.6(04:25) M1.1(09:45)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 13-Aug-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 13-Aug-2000 23:30.