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 9 August 2000
⇐20000808 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000810⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09105
09107
09110
09114
09115
09116
09117
09119
09120
09121
09122
09123
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09105 N17W91
(903",276") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0060 01/01 -
09107 S13W89
(920",-212") 		β/α Cro/Hrx 0030/0020 03/02 -
09110 S18W61
(787",-339") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0040/0060 05/07 -
09114 N11W15
(241",79") 		βγ/βγ Eki/Eai 0290/0160 21/22 C2.3(15:19)
09115 N18W00
(0",190") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0170/0120 05/05 -
09116 S12W00
(0",-299") 		α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0010 03/03 -
09117 S10W65
(844",-207") 		α/α Axx/Hsx 0000/0010 01/01 -
09119 S13W48
(685",-280") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0050/0050 07/10 -
09120 S21W17
(258",-431") 		β/β Bxo/Cso 0010/0020 03/05 -
09121 S34W12
(163",-612") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0100/0070 03/04 -
09122 N22E22
(-329",262") 		βγ/β Dai/Dso 0160/0080 15/08 C1.8(05:27)
09123 N18E58
(-763",237") 		α/- Hsx/- 0080/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(04:25) C1.5(22:05) /C1.4(02:10) C1.5(07:35) M1.9(11:05) C1.4(15:38)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 09-Aug-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 09-Aug-2000 23:30.