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 4 August 2000
⇐20000803 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000805⇒

NOAA
10 Active Regions
09103
09104
09105
09107
09110
09111
09112
09113
09114
09115
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09103 N11W91
(927",180") 		β/β Cso/Dso 0060/0100 02/04 -
09104 S19W40
(575",-379") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0110/0090 05/07 -
09105 N17W26
(397",189") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0080/0080 01/05 -
09107 S17W11
(173",-370") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0050/0080 10/10 -
09110 S20E05
(-77",-416") 		β/β Cso/Cao 0040/0050 04/03 -
09111 N10W17
(273",69") 		α/α Hsx/Cro 0010/0020 01/03 -
09112 N14W41
(603",154") 		α/α Axx/Hrx 0010/0010 01/01 -
09113 S26W39
(535",-483") 		β/β Dao/Cso 0040/0030 07/06 -
09114 N10E50
(-714",100") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0080/0060 01/01 -
09115 N16E63
(-810",215") 		α/- Hsx/- 0060/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(04:51) /C1.4(08:08) C1.9(18:45)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 04-Aug-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 04-Aug-2000 23:30.