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 28 July 2000
⇐20000727 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000729⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09090
09094
09096
09097
09099
09100
09101
09102
09103
09104
09105
09106
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09090 N14W90
(916",227") 		βγ/βγ Fai/Fai 0320/0380 09/27 /M2.4(04:06)
C3.9(05:50)
C4.1(09:11)
C2.7(12:37)
C3.7(14:32)
M1.2(23:37)
09094 S22W80
(863",-367") 		α/α Hrx/Hsx 0020/0020 01/01 -
09096 S10W60
(807",-208") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0010/0020 01/04 -
09097 N09W55
(766",95") 		βγ/βγ Dai/Dac 0250/0390 23/28 /C2.3(07:08)
09099 N15W42
(612",177") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0070 01/01 -
09100 S31W15
(210",-562") 		β/β Cso/Eso 0130/0130 08/09 -
09101 S13W19
(300",-297") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0020/0030 01/08 -
09102 S19E17
(-262",-390") 		α/β Axx/Bxo 0000/0010 01/03 -
09103 N09E02
(-32",56") 		β/α Cro/Hrx 0020/0010 03/01 -
09104 S23E52
(-686",-420") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0090 01/01 -
09105 N13E67
(-848",176") 		α/- Hsx/- 0050/- 01/- C3.5(21:07)
09106 S10W29
(452",-243") 		β/- Cso/- 0010/- 04/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.2(00:00) C1.4(04:00) C2.3(04:12) C2.8(07:11) C1.9(10:08) C1.3(12:43) C1.7(16:31) /C2.3(00:16) C2.6(01:03) C3.5(02:41) C2.9(03:40) C2.4(10:17) M1.5(16:43)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 28-Jul-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 28-Jul-2000 23:30.