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 27 July 2000
⇐20000726 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000728⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09087
09090
09091
09094
09096
09097
09099
09100
09101
09102
09103
09104
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09087 S11W91
(926",-177") 		βγ/βγ Fac/Fac 0240/0380 10/12 /C5.0(03:12)
C2.6(08:09)
09090 N14W75
(886",204") 		βγ/βγ Fai/Fai 0380/0450 27/44 M2.4(04:06)
C3.9(05:50)
C4.1(09:11)
C2.7(12:37)
C3.7(14:32)
M1.2(23:37)
/C8.9(03:47)
C4.6(05:07)
C4.4(16:12)
09091 S04W78
(922",-84") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0000 01/01 -
09094 S23W67
(801",-400") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0020/0040 01/05 -
09096 S11W47
(680",-240") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0020/0040 04/07 -
09097 N07W41
(617",46") 		βγ/βγ Dac/Ekc 0390/0510 28/26 C2.3(07:08)
/C5.4(17:50)
09099 N14W28
(432",150") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0070/0060 01/01 -
09100 S32W00
(0",-577") 		β/β Eso/Eso 0130/0130 09/11 -
09101 S14W04
(64",-316") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0030/0040 08/12 -
09102 S21E33
(-481",-409") 		β/α Bxo/Hrx 0010/0010 03/01 -
09103 N08E14
(-227",44") 		α/- Hrx/- 0010/- 01/- -
09104 S19E62
(-790",-346") 		α/- Hsx/- 0090/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.3(00:16) C2.6(01:03) C3.5(02:41) C2.9(03:40) C2.4(10:17) M1.5(16:43) /C3.9(01:37) C2.0(07:04) M1.3(07:37) C2.7(09:33) C2.0(11:03) C2.6(18:41) C3.6(19:35)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 27-Jul-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 27-Jul-2000 23:30.