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 19 July 2000
⇐20000718 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000720⇒

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

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Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09077 N18W72
(855",267") 		βγ/βγ Eai/Eai 0200/0320 25/32 C3.4(16:07)
/M1.9(04:59)
M3.3(19:34)
C4.1(22:56)
09079 S25W64
(770",-430") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0050 01/01 -
09080 N25W49
(647",351") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0020/0070 04/09 -
09081 N04W36
(555",1") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0070/0090 04/08 -
09082 S10W74
(895",-185") 		β/β Dao/Dso 0050/0040 08/11 -
09084 N20W54
(720",278") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0170/0160 11/10 -
09085 N12W20
(317",123") 		β/βγ Eao/Eao 0300/0300 21/23 -
09087 S12W01
(16",-274") 		βγδ/βγ Eai/Dai 0450/0250 36/26 C6.7(04:27)
M6.4(06:45)
C3.5(16:30)
/C9.3(07:13)
M3.0(14:00)
C6.4(17:22)
09088 N22W36
(516",294") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0170/0120 19/18 -
09090 N11E32
(-493",113") 		βγ/βγ Fao/Fsi 0190/0250 20/17 -
09091 S07E27
(-427",-185") 		β/β Cso/Cao 0070/0110 04/05 -
09092 S25W40
(551",-454") 		β/β Dso/Bxo 0030/0030 06/05 -
09093 S12W21
(332",-269") 		β/β Cso/Cso 0010/0010 02/03 -
09094 S25E37
(-516",-456") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0080 01/01 -
09095 N23W13
(196",297") 		β/β Dao/Bxo 0050/0020 08/05 -
09096 S13E57
(-773",-254") 		α/- Hsx/- 0060/- 01/- -
09097 N06E61
(-823",60") 		β/- Dso/- 0200/- 02/- C5.8(18:34)
C3.6(21:55)
/C2.8(10:53)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C2.8(01:06) C2.2(03:37)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 19-Jul-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 19-Jul-2000 23:30.