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 15 July 2000
⇐20000714 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000716⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09069
09070
09073
09077
09079
09080
09081
09082
09084
09085
09087
09088
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09069 S18W91
(898",-289") 		β/β Dao/Fai 0150/0500 04/09 -
09070 N19W91
(893",307") 		β/βγ Dso/Fko 0050/0510 03/06 -
09073 S20W83
(881",-330") 		β/β Eao/Eao 0220/0280 08/09 -
09077 N18W23
(352",227") 		βγδ/βγδ Fkc/Fkc 0460/0730 57/42 C4.2(03:45)
C6.9(05:09)
M1.3(08:20)
/X5.7(10:03)
M3.7(13:44)
09079 S28W12
(174",-507") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0070 01/01 -
09080 N26W00
(0",348") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0020/0040 01/03 -
09081 N02E15
(-245",-38") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0160/0180 14/11 -
09082 S11W20
(318",-248") 		β/β Cao/Dao 0070/0070 11/09 -
09084 N21W04
(61",270") 		β/β Cao/Dso 0020/0020 02/02 -
09085 N14E33
(-501",168") 		βγ/β Dai/Dao 0170/0120 17/09 C5.0(01:18)
C3.7(20:59)
09087 S12E57
(-776",-235") 		α/- Hax/- 0170/- 02/- C3.2(22:15)
C7.1(22:58)
09088 N23E12
(-181",303") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 03/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C3.7(02:33) C7.8(15:36) /C4.9(00:20) M1.5(00:39) C6.1(02:14) C7.1(06:52) C5.9(09:51)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-Jul-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 15-Jul-2000 23:30.