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 10 July 2000
⇐20000709 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000711⇒

NOAA
14 Active Regions
09066
09067
09068
09069
09070
09071
09073
09074
09075
09076
09077
09078
09079
09080
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09066 N12W69
(864",173") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0010 02/05 C3.2(16:46)
09067 S18W70
(845",-312") 		α/α Hsx/Hax 0160/0190 01/01 -
09068 S17W56
(750",-311") 		β/β Dai/Ekc 0320/0390 22/34 -
09069 S17W39
(570",-325") 		β/β Eao/Dao 0300/0140 17/15 M1.8(18:30)
09070 N19W37
(539",258") 		βγ/βγ Eac/Eac 0320/0340 26/38 C3.5(07:53)
M1.9(19:55)
09071 N24W89
(862",382") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0010/0040 02/06 -
09073 S19W22
(335",-365") 		β/β Eso/Eao 0160/0150 16/23 -
09074 N12E02
(-32",132") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0020/0010 05/04 -
09075 N06E17
(-275",36") 		β/α Dso/Axx 0020/0000 02/01 -
09076 S23E19
(-284",-426") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0030 01/01 -
09077 N18E41
(-591",245") 		βγ/β Fki/Fki 0750/0410 21/10 C6.0(01:05)
M1.1(10:26)
M1.4(14:16)
M5.7(21:05)
/C5.0(02:26)
C4.2(06:48)
M5.7(07:15)
C4.4(12:09)
C4.6(22:21)
09078 S14E30
(-460",-283") 		β/α Bxo/Hrx 0020/0030 05/02 -
09079 S29E52
(-652",-493") 		α/- Hsx/- 0070/- 01/- -
09080 N26E67
(-782",390") 		α/- Hsx/- 0060/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C4.2(02:55) C6.0(16:57) C2.6(20:05) C2.4(23:39)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 10-Jul-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 10-Jul-2000 23:30.