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 6 July 2000
⇐20000705 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000707⇒

NOAA
13 Active Regions
09061
09062
09063
09065
09066
09067
09068
09069
09070
09071
09072
09073
09074
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09061 S13W89
(920",-213") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0040/0060 01/02 -
09062 S16W75
(878",-274") 		β/β Dso/Cao 0150/0220 03/07 -
09063 N27W86
(839",424") 		α/β Axx/Axx 0000/0010 02/02 -
09065 N23W15
(225",317") 		α/α Axx/Hsx 0000/0010 01/01 -
09066 N11W17
(272",125") 		β/β Cao/Dso 0030/0060 04/10 -
09067 S21W17
(258",-391") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0230/0210 01/01 -
09068 S19W02
(31",-363") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0200/0210 23/24 C2.4(09:03)
09069 S14E05
(-80",-285") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0020/0050 02/02 -
09070 N17E15
(-234",222") 		βγ/β Dai/Dao 0310/0090 22/15 C4.3(12:23)
/C1.3(20:40)
09071 N22W36
(516",310") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 05/- /C1.0(20:00)
09072 N15E02
(-31",188") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 02/- -
09073 S21E31
(-455",-386") 		β/- Bxo/- 0020/- 03/- -
09074 N10E50
(-714",127") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(05:25) C4.7(20:38) C4.8(20:38) /C2.3(03:54) C1.1(19:09) C1.0(23:10)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 06-Jul-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 06-Jul-2000 23:30.