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 30 June 2000
⇐20000629 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000701⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
09054
09055
09056
09057
09058
09061
09062
09063
09064
09065
09066
09067
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09054 N14W72
(872",214") 		β/β Eao/Eai 0250/0290 18/18 -
09055 N21W47
(646",308") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0050/0080 01/01 -
09056 S12W51
(720",-226") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0210/0210 01/01 -
09057 N15W33
(498",206") 		β/β Cho/Cho 0230/0290 04/04 -
09058 S13W91
(920",-211") 		β/β Dao/Eko 0220/0310 02/05 -
09061 S14W09
(144",-275") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0070 01/01 -
09062 S16E09
(-142",-306") 		β/β Dko/Dko 0360/0360 19/14 -
09063 N26W11
(162",372") 		β/β Eao/Dso 0060/0090 15/16 -
09064 S21W91
(881",-337") 		β/β Cro/Bxo 0030/0020 02/04 /C6.2(07:45)
09065 N20E62
(-785",302") 		α/- Hsx/- 0060/- 01/- -
09066 N10E61
(-815",141") 		β/- Cao/- 0100/- 04/- -
09067 S22E60
(-760",-376") 		α/- Hax/- 0130/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.7(08:54) C1.6(09:52) C1.1(15:20) C1.5(21:01) C2.7(23:33) /C1.5(09:44) C4.8(10:24) C1.6(12:11) C1.6(18:09) C2.8(19:35) C1.8(21:44)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 30-Jun-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 30-Jun-2000 23:30.