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 24 June 2000
⇐20000623 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000625⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
09042
09046
09049
09050
09052
09054
09055
09056
09057
09058
09059
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09042 N23W85
(866",366") 		β/βγ Eai/Fao 0220/0150 13/19 /C4.3(02:37)
C6.3(05:16)
M3.0(14:18)
C7.7(22:11)
09046 N21W47
(646",315") 		βγ/βγ Eao/Eko 0220/0310 18/19 /M2.6(04:00)
09049 S37W34
(423",-594") 		β/β Dso/Dro 0080/0030 12/07 C1.2(08:01)
09050 S09W89
(932",-148") 		β/β Eso/Dao 0130/0140 08/17 -
09052 S27W91
(841",-427") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0090/0130 01/03 -
09054 N11E07
(-113",144") 		β/α Bxo/Hsx 0030/0030 08/01 -
09055 N19E31
(-461",278") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0080/0090 01/01 -
09056 S15E28
(-430",-276") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0250/0180 01/01 -
09057 N14E46
(-661",204") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0180/0140 01/01 -
09058 S14W29
(446",-260") 		β/- Cro/- 0020/- 05/- -
09059 N14E16
(-253",194") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 04/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.3(20:14) /C1.7(01:52)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 24-Jun-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 24-Jun-2000 23:30.