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 18 June 2000
⇐20000617 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000619⇒

NOAA
13 Active Regions
09033
09034
09036
09037
09040
09041
09042
09044
09046
09048
09049
09050
09051
SMART
No Data
CHARM
No Data
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
09033 N24W91
(862",384") 		β/βγ Cso/Cai 0070/0200 05/16 X1.0(01:52)
/M3.5(02:25)
C2.6(13:49)
09034 S10W91
(930",-163") 		α/α Hrx/Hsx 0080/0060 01/01 -
09036 S19W56
(742",-321") 		β/β Cso/Dho 0170/0250 06/08 -
09037 N21W53
(706",325") 		α/β Hrx/Cso 0010/0040 01/08 -
09040 N19W18
(277",285") 		β/β Cao/Cao 0060/0080 03/06 -
09041 N19W91
(892",307") 		β/β Dro/Bxo 0030/0060 03/05 -
09042 N22E03
(-46",331") 		βγ/βγ Fki/Eki 0550/0690 36/35 /C2.2(12:18)
09044 S16W91
(907",-259") 		β/- Cso/- 0120/- 03/- -
09046 N19E31
(-461",288") 		β/βγ Dko/Dki 0540/0570 11/17 -
09048 N07W41
(617",96") 		β/α Dao/Axx 0020/0010 04/02 /C2.5(17:57)
09049 S38E39
(-469",-598") 		β/β Cro/Bxo 0040/0050 04/04 -
09050 S13W08
(128",-237") 		β/- Cro/- 0010/- 03/- -
09051 N16E47
(-666",244") 		α/- Hrx/- 0010/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.4(16:59) /C2.2(10:49) C2.8(20:36) C4.6(22:27)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 18-Jun-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 18-Jun-2000 23:30.