show styles

 21 May 2000
⇐20000520 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000522⇒

NOAA
11 Active Regions
08996
08998
08999
09002
09004
09009
09010
09011
09012
09013
09014
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
08996 S21W48
(657",-320") 		β/βγ Ekc/Ekc 0870/0950 44/42 C8.2(10:19)
C2.1(19:21)
/C2.1(20:17)
C2.8(21:11)
08998 S12W36
(545",-173") 		βγ/βγ Eac/Eac 0420/0490 32/31 C2.5(06:30)
/C5.0(00:41)
C3.6(03:14)
C7.6(05:25)
08999 N19W35
(514",331") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0020/0000 09/02 /C2.5(21:49)
09002 N19W09
(140",336") 		βγ/βγ Fki/Fkc 0720/0730 49/41 /C4.2(16:57)
09004 N12W20
(317",224") 		βδ/β Dkc/Dac 0520/0130 14/17 C1.9(16:38)
/C2.7(04:34)
09009 S14E28
(-432",-203") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0040 02/01 -
09010 N21E29
(-429",364") 		β/β Cao/Eho 0090/0180 11/09 /C2.6(22:23)
09011 N17E39
(-570",299") 		α/α Hax/Hsx 0240/0240 02/02 C3.7(00:07)
09012 S29W49
(625",-441") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0000 04/04 -
09013 S06W75
(908",-91") 		β/- Bxo/- 0000/- 04/- -
09014 S43E09
(-108",-624") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.4(08:08)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 21-May-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 21-May-2000 23:30.