Flare Prediction System

	15 May 2000
⇐20000514 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation	Today	Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000516⇒

13 Active Regions

08989
08990
08991
08992
08993
08994
08996
08997
08998
08999
09000
09002
09003

No Data

Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)

Number

McIntosh

C-class

M-class

X-class

No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

X-rays
Protons
Electrons

Plasma
B Field

3 Day
6 Hour

Events

SolarSoft
SWPC HEK

Flare Forecast
MM MotD

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions

Group Number

Location

Hale
Class

McIntosh Class

Sunspot
Area

Number of Spots

Flares
History

N16W68
(843",275")

β/β

Dki/Dki

0320/0400

16/22

/C4.8(13:42)

N14W49
(693",255")

β/β

Dai/Eki

0230/0360

28/34

-

N16W23
(356",297")

β/β

Cso/Cso

0020/0040

05/09

-

N11W05
(81",221")

β/β

Cso/Cao

0020/0030

04/03

-

S23W71
(823",-356")

β/β

Eko/Dai

0290/0200

15/23

C3.9(03:29)
C7.8(15:46)
M1.2(17:57)
C9.8(21:49)
/C5.2(03:57)
M1.0(07:59)
C5.1(19:41)
C2.9(22:43)

N11W69
(867",194")

β/-

Bxo/-

0000/-

02/-

-

S21E31
(-455",-306")

β/β

Ekc/Eki

1140/1210

26/16

/C7.5(09:14)
C7.3(10:31)

S16E08
(-126",-221")

β/α

Bxo/Hsx

0010/0020

03/02

-

S13E40
(-593",-181")

β/β

Fai/Eao

0410/0260

19/08

C5.1(00:40)
C6.1(15:25)
M1.1(16:38)
C4.3(18:31)
/C6.6(16:45)
C3.6(22:15)

N20E42
(-595",352")

β/β

Cso/Bxo

0060/0040

05/05

-

N08W14
(227",171")

β/β

Bxo/Bxo

0010/0010

04/04

-

N18E62
(-794",310")

α/-

Hhx/-

0190/-

01/-

M4.4(08:16)
C4.9(17:28)
M2.0(18:48)

S18W40
(579",-262")

β/-

Bxo/-

0010/-

05/-

-

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: M1.3(04:47) M1.2(10:46) C4.9(21:27) C2.8(23:03) C2.2(23:39) /C4.4(05:03) C2.1(18:12)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 15-May-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 15-May-2000 23:30.