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 14 May 2000
⇐20000513 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000515⇒

NOAA
13 Active Regions
08983
08987
08989
08990
08991
08992
08993
08996
08997
08998
08999
09000
09001
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
08983 N26W80
(836",420") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0000 01/02 -
08987 N09W89
(932",148") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0000 02/01 -
08989 N17W54
(732",300") 		β/β Dki/Dki 0400/0340 22/17 C4.8(13:42)
08990 N13W35
(529",247") 		β/β Eki/Dao 0360/0300 34/32 /C2.8(11:54)
08991 N15W07
(111",287") 		β/β Cso/Cao 0040/0060 09/09 -
08992 N10E08
(-130",207") 		β/α Cao/Hsx 0030/0040 03/03 -
08993 S23W58
(739",-348") 		β/β Dai/Dsi 0200/0160 23/22 C5.2(03:57)
M1.0(07:59)
C5.1(19:41)
C2.9(22:43)
/C3.8(10:55)
C2.9(20:54)
C7.4(23:01)
08996 S22E44
(-610",-325") 		β/β Eki/Dki 1210/0520 16/10 C7.5(09:14)
C7.3(10:31)
/C7.6(03:18)
C4.0(04:30)
C6.7(07:26)
C3.7(12:11)
08997 S16E23
(-356",-222") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0020 02/01 -
08998 S13E52
(-727",-186") 		β/β Eao/Cso 0260/0060 08/02 C6.6(16:45)
C3.6(22:15)
08999 N21E54
(-715",362") 		β/- Bxo/- 0040/- 05/- /C4.5(17:36)
09000 N10W00
(0",207") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 04/- -
09001 N16W19
(296",300") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C4.4(05:03) C2.1(18:12) /M1.1(01:21)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 14-May-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 14-May-2000 23:30.