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 25 April 2000
⇐20000424 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000426⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
08962
08963
08965
08966
08967
08968
08969
08970
08971
08972
08973
08974
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
08962 N24W78
(844",397") 		α/α Axx/Hsx 0010/0020 01/01 -
08963 N17W84
(898",282") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0000/0020 02/02 /C1.1(12:52)
08965 S16W41
(597",-204") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0040/0080 06/09 -
08966 S12W29
(449",-131") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0000/0000 03/03 -
08967 N22W17
(257",421") 		β/β Eao/Eao 0180/0180 11/13 C1.6(17:56)
/C2.7(01:02)
C2.0(19:54)
08968 S13W53
(737",-167") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0130/0170 09/08 -
08969 N12W07
(113",270") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0020 01/02 -
08970 S15E16
(-252",-173") 		βγ/βδ Eki/Ekc 1060/1210 27/31 C1.3(03:31)
08971 N18E14
(-218",362") 		β/βγ Eko/Fko 0910/0860 15/16 /C1.4(08:34)
08972 N34W47
(574",570") 		β/β Eao/Dao 0220/0200 16/16 C1.8(09:20)
C1.6(18:44)
/C1.6(03:33)
C1.9(17:41)
C2.9(17:56)
08973 N21W52
(696",382") 		β/β Dso/Dao 0110/0070 10/07 -
08974 S21W63
(787",-305") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0000 01/01 -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.7(10:38) C2.5(23:09) /C1.1(03:22) C1.5(08:55)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 25-Apr-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 25-Apr-2000 23:30.