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 24 April 2000
⇐20000423 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000425⇒

NOAA
14 Active Regions
08955
08962
08963
08965
08966
08967
08968
08969
08970
08971
08972
08973
08974
08975
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
08955 S20W91
(887",-323") 		β/β Cso/Eso 0030/0060 02/07 -
08962 N24W66
(789",412") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0020/0020 01/01 -
08963 N17W71
(855",299") 		β/β Bxo/Cso 0020/0030 02/07 C1.1(12:52)
08965 S16W27
(413",-193") 		β/β Dao/Cro 0080/0010 09/04 -
08966 S13W15
(239",-139") 		β/β Bxo/Cro 0000/0010 03/04 -
08967 N22W04
(61",426") 		β/β Eao/Eao 0180/0220 13/13 C2.7(01:02)
C2.0(19:54)
/C2.1(05:58)
08968 S13W40
(593",-154") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0170/0190 08/09 -
08969 N12E06
(-97",272") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0020/0040 02/03 -
08970 S15E29
(-444",-178") 		βδ/β Ekc/Eki 1210/1010 31/15 /C2.7(13:44)
08971 N18E27
(-409",358") 		βγ/βγ Fko/Fko 0860/0600 16/12 C1.4(08:34)
08972 N34W34
(439",581") 		β/β Dao/Dao 0200/0110 16/13 C1.6(03:33)
C1.9(17:41)
C2.9(17:56)
08973 N20W39
(560",379") 		β/β Dao/Bxo 0070/0010 07/03 -
08974 S21W49
(667",-290") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 01/- -
08975 S25E37
(-517",-342") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 01/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.1(03:22) C1.5(08:55) /C4.7(01:08) C1.2(05:04)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 24-Apr-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 24-Apr-2000 23:30.