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 18 April 2000
⇐20000417 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000419⇒

NOAA
12 Active Regions
08949
08951
08953
08955
08958
08959
08960
08961
08962
08963
08964
08965
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
08949 S20W91
(887",-323") 		α/α Hax/Hax 0080/0070 02/02 -
08951 N12W71
(874",223") 		β/β Cso/Dso 0080/0110 04/08 -
08953 S13W48
(686",-155") 		α/β Hrx/Cao 0010/0020 01/06 -
08955 S22W19
(286",-277") 		βγ/βγ Eao/Eao 0320/0350 13/14 /C2.5(00:23)
C3.7(17:26)
08958 N18W26
(395",366") 		α/- Axx/- 0000/- 01/- -
08959 S17W48
(673",-220") 		β/β Cro/Cso 0020/0040 06/14 -
08960 N19W87
(891",310") 		α/β Hrx/Cso 0020/0050 01/08 -
08961 S27W60
(730",-389") 		α/- Axx/- 0010/- 02/- -
08962 N24E11
(-165",461") 		α/β Hax/Cso 0060/0070 01/02 -
08963 N16E08
(-126",343") 		β/α Cro/Hrx 0040/0020 07/04 C7.8(07:58)
C4.0(11:47)
C4.2(14:08)
08964 N34W05
(68",599") 		β/β Cao/Bxo 0030/0010 06/03 -
08965 S16E52
(-717",-208") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 02/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C1.9(05:59) C1.0(12:45) C1.8(13:20) /C1.4(04:54) C1.0(21:10)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 18-Apr-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 18-Apr-2000 23:30.