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 28 March 2000
⇐20000327 ⇐Week ⇐Rotation Today Rotation⇒ Week⇒ 20000329⇒

NOAA
13 Active Regions
08915
08916
08921
08923
08924
08925
08926
08927
08928
08931
08932
08933
08934
SMART
No Data
CHARM
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data from nearly eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22. For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
No Prediction Found

NOTE: Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.

IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
08915 N23W78
(851",387") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0170/0150 01/01 -
08916 N13W70
(866",248") 		β/β Dso/Dso 0130/0140 06/05 -
08921 S18W31
(464",-201") 		β/β Dai/Dai 0130/0260 20/29 -
08923 S26W37
(512",-333") 		α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0000 01/01 -
08924 N10W01
(16",272") 		β/βγ Dai/Dai 0230/0200 22/24 -
08925 S18E07
(-109",-187") 		β/βγ Dki/Dsi 0270/0170 20/17 -
08926 S09W85
(929",-137") 		β/βγδ Dso/Dso 0070/0090 06/12 M3.1(01:34)
C4.5(02:09)
/C9.6(01:07)
M1.0(05:12)
C6.2(10:34)
C8.4(13:56)
C7.9(14:13)
C8.9(15:29)
C4.7(21:12)
08927 N17W66
(826",317") 		β/βγ Dso/Dso 0070/0130 11/17 -
08928 N18E02
(-31",395") 		α/β Hsx/Cso 0040/0060 01/08 -
08931 S14E20
(-314",-127") 		β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 04/08 /C2.3(07:46)
08932 S14E46
(-661",-153") 		α/α Hsx/Hsx 0060/0070 01/01 -
08933 N16E19
(-296",359") 		α/- Hrx/- 0010/- 01/- -
08934 N22E40
(-564",430") 		β/- Bxo/- 0010/- 03/- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C2.5(00:10) C1.9(03:45) C2.4(07:42) C2.2(08:31) C1.8(10:32) C3.0(13:18) C4.7(16:26) C8.7(19:03) C4.0(20:27) C4.4(22:10) C3.8(22:48) /C4.3(03:16) C2.3(06:37)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 28-Mar-2000 00:30 , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 28-Mar-2000 23:30.