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31 October 2014
20141030 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20141101

NOAA
10 Active Regions

Flare Forecast
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
12192 Dkc 80(65) 49(20) 9(5)
12194 Hax 8(10) 3(1) 0(1)
12195 Hax 8(15) 3(5) 0(1)
12196 Axx 3(5) 1(1) 0(1)
12197 Axx 3(5) 1(1) 0(1)
12198 Axx 3(5) 1(1) 0(1)
12199 Cro 13(10) 2(1) 0(1)
12200 Cao 22(15) 3(5) 0(1)
12201 Hax 8(65) 3(10) 0(5)
12202 Bxo 6(5) 1(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
12192 S15W91
(932",-247")
βγ/βγδ Dkc/Fkc 0390/1500 04/10 C8.2(00:32)
/C3.5(05:42)
C2.9(12:37)
C9.7(15:21)
M1.3(00:34)
M3.5(01:19)
M1.2(04:17)
12194 S13W69
(880",-243")
α/α Hax/Hax 0020/0030 01/02 -
12195 N08W42
(642",79")
α/β Hax/Cso 0050/0050 01/03 -
12196 S04W20
(331",-138")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
12197 S12W23
(370",-268")
α/β Axx/Cso 0010/0030 01/04 -
12198 S13W52
(743",-262")
α/α Axx/Axx 0000/0010 01/04 -
12199 S17E16
(-255",-351")
β/- Cro/--- 0020/---- 04/-- -
12200 S16E41
(-611",-320")
β/- Cao/--- 0020/---- 05/-- -
12201 S05E57
(-809",-124")
α/- Hax/--- 0030/---- 01/-- C2.3(08:21)
C2.0(09:19)
12202 N13E08
(-131",144")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 02/-- -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C6.9(13:04) C2.3(15:06) C3.4(17:53) C4.8(22:54)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 31-Oct-2014 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 31-Oct-2014 12:35 UT .