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29 November 2014
20141128 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20141130

NOAA
9 Active Regions

Flare Forecast
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
12216 Dao 36(50) 7(10) 0(1)
12217 Cao 22(20) 3(1) 0(1)
12218 Hsx 5(5) 3(1) 0(1)
12219 Ekc 93(80) 82(30) 20(5)
12220 Bxo 6(5) 1(0) 0(0)
12221 Eac 81(65) 30(15) 14(1)
12222 Ehc 99(70) 74(30) 0(15)
12223 Bxo 6(5) 1(1) 0(1)
12224 Bxo 6(5) 1(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
12216 S13W41
(623",-233")
β/β Dao/Cai 0200/0200 10/20 -
12217 S20W00
(0",-352")
β/βγ Cao/Eai 0070/0130 05/15 -
12218 N16E14
(-227",250")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0140/0140 01/01 -
12219 N04W35
(558",51")
βγ/βγ Ekc/Dai 0250/0200 16/16 /C3.1(20:12)
12220 S16W28
(440",-285")
β/α Bxo/Axx 0010/0010 02/02 -
12221 N04E42
(-651",53")
βγ/β Eac/Dai 0200/0160 16/10 /C1.5(02:33)
12222 S20E43
(-624",-347")
βγ/βγ Ehc/Dai 0330/0120 17/10 /C2.9(04:18)
C2.0(11:16)
12223 N17W26
(409",268")
β/β Bxo/Bxo 0010/0010 05/01 -
12224 S24E28
(-418",-412")
β/- Bxo/--- 0010/---- 04/-- C4.0(00:00)

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C7.5(00:29)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 29-Nov-2014 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 29-Nov-2014 01:35 UT .