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12 February 2016
20160211 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20160213

NOAA
6 Active Regions

Flare Forecast
Region Flare Probabilities (%)
NOAA Number McIntosh Class C-class M-class X-class

12492
12494
12497
12498

Hrx
Dso
Eac
Axx
FPS
NOAA
6 5
30 20
81 75
3 5
FPS
NOAA
1 1
7 1
30 15
1 1
FPS
NOAA
0 1
1 1
14 1
0 1

Solar Monitor's flare prediction system's (FPS) probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41 , along with full forecast verification testing).

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


IDL Access

Today's/Yesterday's NOAA Active Regions
NOAA Number
Latest
Position
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot Area
[millionths]
Number of Spots
Recent
Flares
12492 N14W72
(897",267")
α/β Hrx/Cro 0020/0020 02/02 C2.1(06:27)
/ C1.2(23:54)
12494 S12W91
(950",-202")
β/β Dso/Dso 0040/0070 03/05 -
12497 N13W15
(246",324")
βγδ/βγ Eac/Eac 0180/0240 22/23 M1.0(10:36)
C1.2(00:49)
/ C8.9(20:18)
C2.6(16:22)
12498 N18E19
(-302",401")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 01/01 -
12491 N01W91
(971",14")
/ / / / -
12496 N08W32
(511",230")
/β /Bxo /0010 /03 -

Class (HH:MM) -Today
Class (HH:MM) -Yesterday

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: None

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 12-Feb-2016 00:30 UT . The greyed out and light-blue entries are values from the previous day. Slashed cells indicate that the active region has no spots. The latest positions of the active regions are given in both heliographic and heliocentric co-ordinates. The region positions are valid on 12-Feb-2016 15:31 UT .