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30 July 2014
20140729 Week Rotation Today Rotation Week 20140731

NOAA
11 Active Regions

Flare Forecast
Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page lists the active regions present on the Sun today, together with their probability of producing C-, M-, or X-class events. Flare probabilities are calculated using NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data combined over 1969-1976 and 1988-1996 (details of which can be found in Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41, along with full forecast verification testing). The percentage probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycles 21 and 22. For example, over both time periods there were 377 regions classified Eai. As this class produced 131 M-class events, the mean M-class flare rate is ~131/377 or ~0.347 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e., P = 1 - exp( -0.347 ) ~ 0.29, or 29% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class flares in the next 24-hours.

See Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002),
Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203, 87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 106(A12) 29951 for further details.

Click here for a description of the various active region classifications from the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Region Flare Probabilities (%)
Number McIntosh C-class M-class X-class
12121 Cao 22(20) 3(1) 0(1)
12123 Cro 13(10) 2(1) 0(1)
12124 Axx 3(5) 1(1) 0(1)
12125 Hax 8(25) 3(5) 0(1)
12126 Eai 71(55) 29(10) 1(1)
12127 Dkc 80(65) 49(20) 9(5)
12128 Hsx 5(5) 3(1) 0(1)
12129 Axx 3(5) 1(1) 0(1)
12130 Dki 73(55) 30(15) 4(1)
12131 Cao 22(5) 3(1) 0(1)

NOTE: Occurrence of '...' indicates that McIntosh class was not observed in the period over which the Poisson flare rate statistics were determined. Values in parantheses/brackets give the NOAA/SWPC forecast probabilities for the occurrence of one or more C-, M-, or X-class flares. When viewed in real-time and before 22:00 UT, NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the current date. When viewed in real-time after 22:00 UT (or when viewing past dates), NOAA predictions are valid up to 22:00 UT on the following date. The most recent data can also be found at NOAA's 3-day Space Weather Predictions page.

Please contact Peter Gallagher if you have any comments or questions regarding this research.


IDL Access

Today's NOAA Active Regions
Group Number
Location
Hale
Class
McIntosh Class
Sunspot
Area
Number of Spots
Flares
History
12121 N08W30
(469",51")
β/β Cao/Cao 0150/0110 12/09 -
12123 S15W32
(485",-320")
β/β Cro/Cao 0010/0030 02/07 -
12124 S21E16
(-244",-421")
α/α Axx/Axx 0010/0010 02/02 -
12125 S13E24
(-375",-295")
α/β Hax/Cao 0040/0050 03/06 C1.3(00:42)
12126 S09W35
(537",-223")
βγ/βγ Eai/Dai 0090/0080 21/22 /C1.6(00:04)
C1.2(03:57)
C1.3(04:53)
C1.8(06:01)
12127 S08E41
(-615",-201")
βδ/βδ Dkc/Dac 0250/0210 06/07 C1.9(05:42)
12128 S20E40
(-572",-389")
α/α Hsx/Hsx 0030/0030 01/01 -
12129 S06W30
(471",-179")
α/β Axx/Cro 0010/0020 02/09 -
12130 S07E64
(-844",-155")
βγ/- Dki/--- 0290/---- 08/-- C3.7(02:43)
12131 S18E52
(-709",-345")
β/- Cao/--- 0010/---- 03/-- -
12122 S13W54
(746",-265")
/ / / / -

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: /C4.6(16:23) C1.6(18:01) C1.0(19:48) C1.0(23:58)

Note: The tabulated data are based on the most recent NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary issued on 30-Jul-2014 00:30 UT , the values to the right of the forward slashes representing yesterdays values or events. Regions with no data in above property fields have decayed and exhibit no spots. The region positions are valid on 30-Jul-2014 11:35 UT .